The latest global
overview of air travel has shown that passengers
from Europe, the Americas and the Far East, are
making more bookings and taking more flights,
despite recent terrorist attacks and on-going
geo-political wrangles.
That's according to
ForwardKeys which predicts future patterns by
analysing 16 million booking transactions a day.
The findings will
be presented at the World Travel and Tourism
Council's Global Summit, the highest-level annual
gathering of travel industry leaders, this year
taking place in Bangkok, April 26 - 27.
The headline
FowardKeys findings are:
- Canada is the
new star destination in North America.
- Europe is
recovering from last year’s terrorist attacks -
arrivals growth is back on track.
- Political
events can have a major impact on the tourism
industry: the Chinese turn their backs on South
Korea, and explore ASEAN countries instead.
- The BRIC
countries are back: Brazil and Russia lead the
growth. Thailand benefits.
Olivier Jager,
CEO of ForwardKeys, said: "This overview reveals the
resilience of the travel industry globally. People
are finding alternative new destinations, and they
are returning to others, previously blighted by
dreadful events. However, in a world of shifting
travel patterns, businesses that depend on
travellers need to be able to readjust ever more
quickly."
The ForwardKeys
data shows that in the Americas, Canada and Mexico
are setting the pace for long-haul arrivals. The
Netherlands, China, the UK, and Germany are fueling
the additional forward bookings to both countries.
The US suffered a
decrease in visitors in the first quarter of this
year - uncertainty due to Donald Trump’s travel ban
and the stronger value of the dollar may have
discouraged Middle Eastern (down 9.5%) and European
travellers (down 6.5%). Forward bookings to the US
have picked up, mainly due to Easter shift.
Long-haul arrivals
in Western Europe are on the increase - showing its
resilience in the face of last year’s terror
attacks. It has taken over a year to recover, but
long-haul arrivals are starting to surge again,
reaching visitor numbers higher than those seen
before the Paris attack in November 2015.
China’s power to
make or break a destination is demonstrated by the
recent trend in visitor numbers to South Korea.
Beijing’s anger at the stationing of US THAAD
missiles in South Korea is having a marked effect.
ForwardKeys’ data reveals international arrivals in
South Korea, for stays of four to eight nights, fell
10% in the first quarter of this year due to
cancellations by Chinese tour groups in March.
Forward bookings for the same category are currently
lagging 28%.
ASEAN countries
are the most likely to benefit from South Korea’s
visitor crisis – as they certainly have the
increased capacity for visitors from China.
The BRIC countries
are travelling again in bigger numbers - Brazil has
been on the up since the end of its political crisis
in 2016, and Russia had its first positive monthly
performance, in December 2016, since its annexation
of Crimea in March 2014. Both countries’ currencies
are recovering in value - indicating more travel to
come.
Forward bookings
show that four out of five of the top increasing
destinations for Brazilians are in Europe. Indian
travellers prefer Asia Pacific. Russians like
Georgia, Czech Republic, UAE and Italy. Turkey’s big
increase is due to Russian travel sanctions the
previous year.
Thailand is
benefiting from the BRIC boom. It’s helping to fill
a gap left by a reduction in Chinese visitors after
the Thai government discouraged cheaper tour groups
from China from September 2016.
Olivier Jager
concluded: “In summary, Europe is recovering, the
BRIC are back, Canada is a rising star and Thailand
has made a very positive start to the year. However,
the deployment of THAAD missiles in South Korea has
torpedoed its inbound tourism industry.” |