Honeywell's 33rd annual forecast shows increased demand for new bizjets, stable growth for next decade

Honeywell has published its 33rd annual Global Business Aviation Outlook, which provides unique insights into current industry trends as well as longer-cycle developments and is informed by extensive surveys of business aviation operators across the globe.

Based on survey results, Honeywell forecasts up to 8,500 new business jets worth $280bn will be delivered over the next decade, an increase in value from last year’s forecast. However, the five-year new jet purchase plans of business aviation operators surveyed remained on par with last year’s results, indicating that demand for new aircraft is stabilizing well above pre-pandemic levels. In addition, the survey reveals ongoing plans by business jet manufacturers to ramp up production in response to strong backlogs and stable book-to-bill ratios persisting through 2024.

“The business aviation industry is in a prolonged period of healthy growth, and we don’t see that positive trend changing any time soon,” said Heath Patrick, president, Americas Aftermarket, Honeywell Aerospace Technologies. “Business aviation continues to see more users and, as a result, manufacturers are ramping up production to keep pace with growing demand, a trend we expect to continue for the foreseeable future. Despite a mixed macroeconomic environment and challenging geopolitical circumstances, operators are optimistic about their flight activity increasing in 2025 and beyond.”

Key findings in the 2024 Honeywell Global Business Aviation Outlook include:

• New business jet deliveries in 2025 are expected to be 12% higher than in 2024. Expenditures are expected to be 11% higher.

• Five-year purchase plans for new business jets are comparable with last year’s survey and equivalent to 18% of the current fleet. Fleet additions are consistent with results from a year ago at 3% of the fleet, which is in line with historical industry performance.

• More than 90% of those surveyed expect to fly more or about the same in 2025 than in 2024.

• Large jets are expected to account for about two-thirds of all expenditures of new business jets in the next five years, consistent with last year’s results.

• 82% of respondents consider “Performance” among their top three most important criteria when purchasing their next aircraft. “Cost” was second at 60%.

New business aviation user update: Returning to a stable growth environment

Following an influx of first-time business aviation users into the industry throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, combined with record levels of flight activity, the industry has begun to return to a more stable growth environment at new elevated levels of production and flight activity. Demand remains robust for new aircraft as business jet manufacturer backlogs stay strong and production volumes ramp up to accommodate that higher demand.

Based on the findings of this year’s survey, several key industry trends to watch include:

• Demand for New Aircraft: New aircraft models introduced in recent years have driven increased demand for new aircraft, a trend which survey results indicate will continue throughout this decade and into the early 2030s.

• Flight Activity & Utilization Levels: Flight activity is expected to increase in 2025 relative to 2024, especially for those who currently operate at high utilization levels. The reduction in barriers to access business aviation in recent years, driven by the introduction of new shared access models, has enabled a persistent flow of new customers opting for business aviation alternatives for their travel needs.

• Fractional Operators: Fractional operators may be the largest beneficiaries of new customer growth, and they are also benefitting from traditional operators wanting to supplement their current operations with fractional shares. The business aviation industry has experienced changing dynamics in recent years, resulting in new higher levels of aircraft deliveries and flight activity than seen in the previous decade, and the sector appears poised to achieve stable growth on top of this over the next decade.

Regional breakdown: North America sees strongest demand, but Latin America shows optimism

North America: North America will see 66% of the five-year new jet deliveries, which is consistent with historical demand for the region. 30% of respondents from North America expect to fly more next year, amounting to a large proportion of the demand, which is likely contributing to the sustained growth of new jet deliveries.

Europe: European operators will comprise 13% of the five-year new jet deliveries, which is one percentage point below last year’s share and follows a similar trend over the past few years. A strong regional focus on sustainability, environmental pressures, and the availability of alternative transit options are the likely cause of this slight dip in new aircraft demand.

Latin America: Operators in Latin America will account for 10% of the five-year new jet deliveries, which is an increase of five percentage points from their share in 2023. In contrast to last year, respondents in Latin America are optimistic about favorable macroeconomic conditions, which will likely drive increased flight activity as well as demand for new jets. This effect is particularly strong in Brazil where year-over-year flight activity growth is stronger than the global average.

Asia Pacific: Operators in Asia Pacific will make up 7% of the five-year new jet deliveries. APAC is returning to typical fleet growth after several years of decline throughout the pandemic. There is a notable uptick in flight activity in Australia, where departures are up nearly double digits year-over-year.

Middle East/Africa: Fleet growth here accounts for 3% of the five-year new jet deliveries, which is a decline of three percentage points from last year’s surveyed expectations. Flight activity in the region declined year-over-year through the first half of 2024, likely due to conflicts in the region.

Preowned aircraft update: Market cools from record-low inventory levels

The market for pre-owned aircraft is cooling after record low inventory levels in 2021 and 2022, but used aircraft values remain strong relative to the previous decade. While pre-owned aircraft inventory will likely continue to increase slowly, prices should remain stable, thereby supporting steady demand for pre-owned aircraft. Operators mentioned expecting to rely on pre-owned aircraft purchases to expand their fleets slightly more than in prior years.

Sustainability in business aviation: Fuel-efficient aircraft recognized as most effective method of improving environmental impact

In light of Honeywell’s commitment to driving aviation sustainability and reaching carbon neutrality by 2035 in its operations and facilities, this year’s survey - for the fourth consecutive year - features an analysis of sustainability in business aviation and also examines how operators are trying to lower their carbon footprint. Several key findings include:

• European operators show the most proactive behavior in lowering their carbon footprint, with North American operators lagging slightly behind. However, the total number of operators taking proactive steps in North America is still greater than any other region given the much larger volume of business aviation operations in the region.

• According to those surveyed, the acquisition of new, more fuel-efficient aircraft is considered to be the most effective method to reduce environmental impact, with 85% of respondents mentioning this to be ‘very effective’ or ‘moderately effective.’

However, this method is only being utilized by 60% of operators who report proactively taking steps to minimize their carbon footprint. These “proactive” operators also outline the use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) as another key method for improving their environmental impact, with 55% of this group mentioning its use in their operations.

75% of operators rank cost as one of the top three obstacles to adopting SAF into their operations, followed by its availability at 64%.

 

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BlueSky Business Aviation News | 24th October 2024 | Issue #769