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Kevin Singh  

Opinion

What a Trump or Harris win could mean for business aviation

By Kevin Singh, President and Founder of Icarus Jet.

 

 

Private aviation is at a fork in the road. From the surging private jet market to environmental and economic headwinds, US political leaders - including Presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris - will likely have vastly different impacts on this industry.

Here’s a breakdown that we put together alongside Icarus Jet’s in-house market research team of some of the key areas in aviation and how different policies could shape their future.

1. Private jet charter

Private jet charter has experienced serious growth, mainly from post-pandemic demand for flexibility. Deliveries of business jets are forecast to continue higher in the next decade at a steady pace, supported by Honeywell’s latest Global Business Aviation Outlook, with 8,500 new jets potentially coming through at a value of about $280bn. However, the policy set by the new administration might seriously affect the charter market:

2. Insurance market

The insurance market for business aviation has to operate amidst geopolitical instability, economic fluctuation, and increased public scrutiny. The policy framework will determine the way risk is managed:

What a Trump or Harris win could mean for business aviation

3. Asset depreciation and tax advantages

Among the vital factors that are to be considered, asset depreciation remains important for aviation owners, particularly those in private and corporate aviation. Sometimes, depreciation rules and tax breaks can make or break a purchasing decision because:

4. Environmental impact and regulations

The future of aviation is at the forefront of environmental concerns, with both candidates likely to take divergent paths in:

5. Market dynamics: Economic and geopolitical factors

Global economic and geopolitical conditions also contribute to shaping the aviation market. Global economic realities and geopolitical pressures, including inflation and ongoing supply chain constraints, hit the aviation market. Business aviation has bounced back strongly since the pandemic, with deliveries up 16% from 2019 to 2025, according to Honeywell. Both US candidates’ economic policies will have cascading effects:

6. Future outlook: Business aviation’s green revolution

Business aviation is already on a strong course of greening. Larger jets, designed for longer ranges and improved fuel efficiency, dominate orders. An administration under Harris would likely accelerate the trend by using incentives to encourage sustainable practices. Democrats could use policy levers to ramp up SAF production and impose emissions standards while funding research into next-generation propulsion.

A Trump presidency would likely slow this transition, giving more freedom to manufacturers. This may help the bottom line of legacy systems, but they will increasingly struggle to keep up with international standards that have more rigid sustainability requirements.

Conclusion

The general future of the aviation sector for the next decade will depend significantly on the policies the upcoming administration will implement. Trump’s policy is for fast market growth through deregulation and tax incentives, which drives charter and private ownership expansion. Harris’s approach is likely directed at sustainability, regulation, and environmental protection, which could reshape market dynamics to favor innovation in green aviation.

Whatever the political outcomes might be, the future of the industry will undeniably be one of balance between economic incentives and environmental responsibilities, the continued evolution of aviation toward global expectations of sustainability. How this delicate balance is achieved will surely be one of the important hallmarks of success as manufacturers, operators, and policymakers take to the skies for the predictable future.

 

About the Author

Pilot, president, and founder of Icarus Jet, a leading global trip support and aircraft management company, Kevin Singh has flown globally as a chief pilot and captain on private jets like the Hawker 800-A and 850 XP, and the Challenger 600 series and Global 6000.

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Icarus Jet

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BlueSky Business Aviation News | 31st October 2024 | Issue #770

 

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